Session 5: Swing states: where the election is won
Recap check
How many electors are there in total?
How many electoral votes does a candidate need to win?
When are the electors' votes counted by Congress?
Answer key
538.
270.
In early January.
Question: Why do candidates visit some states again and again?
Objectives
Understand what a swing state is
Read a bar chart of election results
Learn that the winner of the people's vote can lose
What we need to say
In this session, you need to predict what a candidate will get if she wins a swing state.
To compare states, we need these words: swing state, safe state, popular vote, to campaign, dispute.
To predict a real possibility, we need the first conditional: If a candidate wins Pennsylvania, she will get nineteen electoral votes.
Words to say it
Word
Meaning
Example
a swing state
a state where both parties can win
Pennsylvania is a swing state.
a safe state
a state where one party nearly always wins
California is a safe state for the Democrats.
the popular vote
the total votes of all the people
She won the popular vote.
to campaign
to travel and speak to win votes
He campaigned in Michigan.
a dispute
a disagreement
The result of 1876 was a dispute.
Sort the phrases (ten)Entry
To compare states, put each phrase in the right column: swing state (SW) or safe state (SA).
both parties can win
the candidates visit it again and again
one party nearly always wins
the result is hard to predict
the candidates rarely visit it
it is also called a battleground state
everybody knows the winner in advance
a lot of money is spent on adverts there
California for the Democrats
Pennsylvania in 2024
Answer key
SW
SW
SA
SW
SA
SW
SA
SW
SA
SW
Matching: election night wordsCore
Match each word with its meaning.
a battleground state
turnout
a margin
a poll
a recount
a landslide
to flip
an undecided voter
a. a survey of what voters think
b. a very big victory
c. the share of people who vote
d. a person who has not chosen yet
e. counting the votes again
f. another name for a swing state
g. to change from one party to the other
h. the difference between the winner and the loser
Answer key
f
c
h
a
e
b
g
d
Thomas Nast, A Truce, Not a Compromise, 1877, wood engraving, Harper's Weekly, 17 February 1877. Library of Congress, Prints and Photographs Division. Public domain. Record
Picture labelling: A Truce, Not a Compromise (1877)Core
Look at Nast's cartoon. Find:
two hands
a weapon
the newspaper title on the left
a question on a paper
the words on the paper in front
the name of the magazine and the date
Answer key
in the middle: one hand rests on the other
a pistol (a revolver) under the hands
Tilden or Blood
Are you ready for civil war?
Civil War
on the right edge: Harper's Weekly, 17 February 1877
Word familiesCore
Complete.
to decide: a ______, undecided
to predict: a ______
to win: a ______, the ______ team
to campaign: a ______ (person)
to dispute: a ______ election
to count: a ______ (counting again)
Answer key
decision
prediction
winner, winning
campaigner
disputed
recount
Documents
Key document
In most states, everybody knows in advance which party will win: these are safe states. In a few states, both parties can win: they are swing states, and the candidates spend most of their time and money there. In 2024, seven states were called swing states by most news media: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Donald Trump won all seven and the election, with 312 electoral votes against 226 for Kamala Harris. A candidate can win the popular vote and lose the Electoral College: this happened in 2000, in 2016 and three times in the nineteenth century. In 1876, the result was disputed and a special commission chose Rutherford B. Hayes, although Samuel Tilden had more votes from the people.
Source: National Archives, 2024 Electoral College results.
Look at the drawings
Thomas Nast, A Truce, Not a Compromise, 1877, wood engraving, Harper's Weekly, 17 February 1877. Library of Congress, Prints and Photographs Division. Public domain. Record
Activities
Read the bar chart: who passed the 270 line in 2024?
Calculate the electoral votes of the seven swing states together (see the table).
Say it: with the table, predict results for three swing states: If a candidate wins Pennsylvania, she will get nineteen electoral votes...
Look at the 1877 cartoon: what objects can you see? What does the newspaper say? Why is it dangerous?
Summary: the election is decided in a few swing states, and the national count of votes is not the winner's count.
Grammar to say it: the conditional (1), real possibilities
Why we need it
To predict a real possibility, we need the first conditional: If a candidate wins Pennsylvania, she will get nineteen electoral votes.
Grammar point: board explanation
Teacher script
Show the swing state table. Ask: What happens if a candidate wins Pennsylvania? Write the answer.
Colour the two parts: if + present simple / will + verb. Insist: no will after if.
Show that the two parts can change places; a comma only when if comes first.
Explain the link with when and unless: When the polls close, the counting will start. Unless she wins Pennsylvania, she will lose.
Write the linking words of cause and consequence: because, so, if, unless, as long as.
Students copy, then do the quick check aloud.
Board: students copy
The first conditional; linking words of cause and consequence
Rule
Real possibility in the future: If + present simple, will + verb.
Form
If a candidate wins Pennsylvania, she will get nineteen electoral votes. She will get nineteen votes if she wins Pennsylvania. (no comma)
Use
Predictions, warnings and plans that can really happen.
Examples from the lesson
If she wins Georgia, she will get sixteen votes.
If nobody gets 270 votes, the House will choose the president.
Unless she wins a swing state, she will lose.
Common mistakes
If she will win Georgia ... → If she wins Georgia ...
If he win → If he wins (third person -s).
When the polls will close → When the polls close.
French and English
French: Quand les bureaux fermeront, on comptera. English: When the polls close, they will count. No future after if or when.
Also on the board: Linking words: cause and consequence
Cause: because, as. Consequence: so, that is why. Condition: if, unless (= if not), as long as.
Quick check, with the whole class
If she ______ (win) Arizona, she ______ (get) eleven votes.
Correct: If he will win, he will get ten votes.
unless = ?
Cause or consequence: so
When the polls ______ (close), the counting will start.
Answer key
wins, will get
If he wins, he will get ten votes.
if not
consequence
close
Grammar to say it: four stages
Stage 1. RecogniseEntry
Which sentence is correct, a or b?
a. If she wins Georgia, she will get sixteen votes. b. If she will win Georgia, she gets sixteen votes.
a. If the race is close, the candidates will come back. b. If the race will be close, the candidates come back.
a. If nobody gets 270, the House chooses will. b. If nobody gets 270, the House will choose the president.
a. She will get eleven votes if she wins Arizona. b. She gets eleven votes if she will win Arizona.
a. If you don't register, you won't vote. b. If you won't register, you don't vote.
a. If it rains, fewer people will vote. b. If it will rain, fewer people vote.
a. If he win Michigan, he will get fifteen votes. b. If he wins Michigan, he will get fifteen votes.
a. If turnout is high, the result will be clearer. b. If turnout is high, the result would be clearer.
Answer key
a
a
b
a
a
a
b
a (real possibility)
Stage 2. TransformCore
Join the two sentences with if (first conditional).
She wins Arizona. She gets eleven electoral votes.
He wins Georgia. He gets sixteen electoral votes.
She wins Michigan. She gets fifteen.
He wins Nevada. He gets six.
She wins North Carolina. She gets sixteen.
He wins Wisconsin. He gets ten.
She wins Pennsylvania. She gets nineteen.
The race is close. The candidates visit the state again.
Nobody gets 270 votes. The House chooses the president.
It rains on Election Day. Some people stay at home.
Answer key
If she wins Arizona, she will get eleven electoral votes.
If he wins Georgia, he will get sixteen electoral votes.
If she wins Michigan, she will get fifteen.
If he wins Nevada, he will get six.
If she wins North Carolina, she will get sixteen.
If he wins Wisconsin, he will get ten.
If she wins Pennsylvania, she will get nineteen.
If the race is close, the candidates will visit the state again.
If nobody gets 270 votes, the House will choose the president.
If it rains on Election Day, some people will stay at home.
Stage 3. Guided productionCore
Finish the sentences with your own idea (first conditional).
If a candidate wins all seven swing states, ...
If the result is very close, ...
If young people vote, ...
If you are eighteen on Election Day, ...
If you don't register, ...
If the candidates visit our town, ...
If a state flips, ...
If I can vote one day, ...
Answer key
Example: ... she will probably win the election.
... there will be a recount in some states.
... the candidates will talk more about education.
... you will be able to vote.
... you won't be able to vote (in most states).
... I will go to the meeting.
... the other party will get its electors.
... I will vote in every election.
Stage 4. Your turnStretch
Campaign adviser: write a memo to your candidate. Which three swing states should she visit? What will happen if she wins them? Use real numbers. Six sentences.
Memo
Answer key
Model: Dear candidate, please visit Pennsylvania, Georgia and Michigan. If you win Pennsylvania, you will get nineteen electoral votes. If you win Georgia, you will get sixteen. If you win Michigan, you will get fifteen more. That makes fifty. If you win them all, you will be very close to 270.
Extra practice
A. Match the halvesEntry
Match the beginning and the end of each sentence.
If he wins Arizona,
If she wins Nevada,
If the race is close,
If nobody gets 270 votes,
a. the candidates will visit the state again.
b. she will get six electoral votes.
c. the House will choose the president.
d. he will get eleven electoral votes.
Answer key
1 d
2 b
3 a
4 c
B. Put the verbs in the right formCore
Present simple after if, will + verb in the other part.
If a candidate ______ (win) Wisconsin, she ______ (get) ten electoral votes.
If it ______ (rain) on Election Day, fewer people ______ (vote).
The candidate ______ (lose) if she ______ (not / win) any swing state.
Answer key
wins, will get
rains, will vote
will lose, does not win
C. Now say it: your predictionsStretch
Write three first conditional sentences about the swing states, with real numbers from the table.
Pennsylvania
Answer key
Examples: If a candidate wins Pennsylvania, she will get nineteen electoral votes. If he wins Georgia, he will get sixteen. If she wins Michigan, she will get fifteen.
Figures of speech: metaphors of war, nature and play
Learn
Election words are often metaphors. A battleground state is a state where the parties fight like armies. A landslide is a huge victory, like a mountain falling. A swing state moves from one side to the other, like a swing in a playground. A wave election is a big movement towards one party.
Which metaphor comes from war?
Which comes from nature?
Which comes from a playground?
Explain a blue wave.
In Nast's cartoon, the papers say Tilden or Blood. Is it a metaphor or a real threat? Discuss.
Write a sentence about a sports match with one of these metaphors.
Answer key
battleground.
landslide (and wave).
swing.
Many Democratic victories at the same time.
Discuss: in 1877 some people really threatened violence; Nast shows the danger.
Example: Our team won by a landslide: ten to nothing.
Expression task: write it, say it
Core First write, then speak. Use the words and the grammar of the session.
Written task: a fact file and a prediction for one swing state
Steps
Name, capital, electoral votes.
One city and one industry.
Who won it in 2024.
Two predictions with the first conditional.
Sentence starters
My swing state is ...
Its capital is ...
It has ... electoral votes.
In 2024, it was won by ...
If a candidate wins it in 2028, she will ...
Model answer
My swing state is Pennsylvania. Its capital is Harrisburg. It has nineteen electoral votes. Its biggest city is Philadelphia. In 2024, it was won by Donald Trump. If a candidate wins it in 2028, she will get nineteen votes. If the race is close, the candidates will visit it many times.
Oral task: TV election night (one minute)
Steps
Greet the viewers.
Give the result of one state.
Predict what will happen.
Hand over to the studio.
Sentence starters
Good evening, I am live from ...
The polls have just closed in ...
If this result is confirmed, ...
Back to you in the studio.
Model answer
Good evening, I am live from Philadelphia. The polls have just closed in Pennsylvania. The race is very close. If this result is confirmed, the winner will get nineteen electoral votes. Back to you in the studio.
Imaginary past: If + had + past participle, would have + past participle.If Gore had won Florida in 2000, he would have become president.
If Tilden / win / one more electoral vote in 1877, he / become / president.
If the Supreme Court / not stop / the recount in 2000, the result / be / different?
If Clinton / win / more swing states in 2016, she / win / the election.
If Harris / win / Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin in 2024, she / still / not reach / 270.
Answer key
If Tilden had won one more electoral vote in 1877, he would have become president. (Hayes won 185 to 184)
If the Supreme Court had not stopped the recount in 2000, would the result have been different? (nobody can know)
If Clinton had won more swing states in 2016, she would have won the election.
If Harris had won Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin in 2024, she would have reached exactly 270 (226 + 19 + 15 + 10 = 270): so she would have won.
Translation, French to EnglishGoing further
Si elle gagne la Pennsylvanie, elle obtiendra dix-neuf grands électeurs.
Si personne n'obtient 270 voix, la Chambre choisira le président.
Si Gore avait gagné la Floride, il serait devenu président.
Les candidats reviendront si la course est serrée.
Answer key
If she wins Pennsylvania, she will get nineteen electoral votes.
If nobody gets 270 votes, the House will choose the president.
If Gore had won Florida, he would have become president.
The candidates will come back if the race is tight (close).
Text analysis: Florida, 2000Going further
On election night in 2000, the presidential race came down to a single state. In Florida, George W. Bush led Al Gore by only a few hundred votes, which triggered recounts and weeks of legal battles. In December, the Supreme Court stopped the recount, and Bush won Florida's electoral votes and the presidency, although Gore had won the national popular vote. Had a few hundred Floridians voted differently, history would have taken another course.
Find the third conditional with inversion. Rewrite it with if.
What does triggered mean?
Find a contrast word.
Why was Florida decisive?
What is the tone of the last sentence?
Answer key
Had a few hundred Floridians voted differently, history would have taken another course. = If a few hundred Floridians had voted differently, ...
caused, started.
although.
Its electoral votes decided who reached the majority.
Reflective: it shows how small events change history.
Argued task (200 to 250 words, or a two-minute oral)Going further
Is it fair that a few swing states decide the presidential election?
Steps
Introduction: the seven swing states of 2024.
Why candidates focus on them.
Is it fair for the voters of safe states?
Your opinion with a third conditional example (2000 or 2016).
Sentence starters
It is no exaggeration to say that ...
Candidates tend to ...
Voters in safe states may feel that ...
Had ..., ... would have ...
All in all, ...
Key points
Key points: seven swing states in 2024 (93 electoral votes); campaigns and money focus there; voters in California or Texas feel ignored; 2000 and 2016 show that the popular vote and the result can differ; a nuanced opinion. Use one third conditional with inversion.
Exercise
Add up the electoral votes of the seven swing states of 2024: Arizona 11, Georgia 16, Michigan 15, Nevada 6, North Carolina 16, Pennsylvania 19, Wisconsin 10.
